Holiday Season Trends: Strategic Insights for Global Business Leaders
- Jason Doucet
- Dec 18, 2025
- 4 min read
The holiday season is more than a festive period—it’s a strategic inflection point for global commerce. From tariff turbulence and supply chain bottlenecks to sustainability imperatives and digital acceleration, businesses face a complex web of challenges and opportunities. Understanding these dynamics is critical for leaders who want to thrive during the year-end rush and set the stage for success in 2026.
1. Supply Chains Under Siege
The holiday surge magnifies existing vulnerabilities in global logistics. Canadian ports like Vancouver and Halifax are experiencing clearance delays stretching from 2–3 days to 7–10 days, creating ripple effects across North American trade corridors [1]. Add to this geopolitical chokepoints in the Red Sea and climate-driven restrictions at the Panama Canal, and resilience becomes non-negotiable.
As of late 2025:
Red Sea/Suez Canal: Attacks and instability have cut Suez Canal transits by 70%, forcing nearly 80% of container ships to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. This adds 7–15 days to voyages and up to $1 million extra per trip in fuel and insurance costs [2].
Panama Canal: Severe drought has reduced daily transits and slashed LNG traffic by 73%, prompting the Canal Authority to invest in mega-projects like dams and pipelines to secure water supply [3].
Combined with tariff volatility—U.S. trade measures have pushed average tariffs on Chinese goods to historic highs, contributing to a projected $2 trillion hit to global GDP by 2027 and fueling inflationary pressures worldwide [4]—these chokepoints create a ‘perfect storm’ for global supply chains. Companies are responding by trimming SKUs by up to 20% and prioritizing tariff-exempt legacy products—a move that underscores the need for portfolio optimization and scenario planning [5].
2. Cross-Border Commerce Goes Mainstream
Global e-commerce continues its upward trajectory. Salesforce forecasts global digital holiday sales at $1.25T (+4% YoY) [6]. Separately, Capital One Shopping estimates the cross‑border e‑commerce consumer market at $1.21T, accounting for ~18.8% of global online sales [17]. Asia-Pacific leads growth, with mobile-first markets like India and Southeast Asia driving double-digit increases [7]. In Europe, cautious optimism prevails—UK and German consumers are prioritizing affordability but still embracing online channels [8].
In the U.S., holiday e-commerce is projected at $305–$310 billion, growing 7–9% year-over-year [9], while Canada expects 5.3% online growth versus 2.5% in-store [10]. Mobile commerce dominates globally, accounting for 56% of online holiday sales, and BNPL (“Buy Now, Pay Later”) methods are projected to exceed $20 billion during the season [11].
International shoppers increasingly demand transparency on duties and delivery timelines. 68% of consumers say they would pay more for guaranteed cross-border delivery before December 24 [12]. Businesses entering global markets must invest in predictive logistics, transparent landed cost calculations, and localized checkout experiences.
3. Sustainability: No Longer Optional
Consumers increasingly expect brands to demonstrate eco-friendly practices. According to PwC’s Holiday Outlook 2025, nearly two-thirds of shoppers say sustainability influences their purchasing decisions [13]. This growing emphasis on environmental responsibility means companies must integrate ESG principles into their operations while maintaining efficiency and reliability—especially during peak holiday demand.
Corporate leaders are embedding sustainability into packaging and shipping, leveraging AI for ESG risk profiling, and enhancing supply chain transparency. Regulatory scrutiny on green claims is intensifying worldwide, making authentic ESG integration a competitive differentiator [14].
4. Strategic Moves & M&A Momentum
Year-end isn’t just about closing sales—it’s about closing deals. Q4 represents up to 20% of annual revenue for many retailers, but it also compresses timelines for budgeting, performance reviews, and strategic pivots [15]. Global M&A activity is surging, with deal volume topping $2 trillion and mega-deals ($10B+) up 59% [16]. Logistics, consumer goods, and tech sectors are seeing consolidation as firms seek resilience and scale.
For businesses looking to capitalize on valuation gaps or secure supply chain capabilities, opportunistic acquisitions and alliances offer a fast track to growth. This is where M&A Strategy & Due Diligence becomes a critical lever—now updated to: Optimize and execute high-impact transactions to strengthen resilience and unlock growth.
Actionable Takeaways for Leaders
Plan for volatility: Build tariff scenarios and diversify sourcing.
Invest in tech: AI-driven forecasting and ESG analytics are game-changers.
Think global: Cross-border e-commerce demands operational excellence.
Seize opportunities: Use Q4 as a springboard for strategic acquisitions.
How Doucet Global Strategies Can Help
International Expansion Advisory: Navigate trade complexities and unlock new markets.
M&A Strategy & Due Diligence: Optimize and execute high-impact transactions to strengthen resilience and unlock growth.
Business Model Transformation: Adapt to digital acceleration and ESG imperatives.
Strategic Finance Leadership: Optimize capital allocation during peak cycles.
Closing Thought
The holiday season magnifies both risk and opportunity. Businesses that anticipate trends and act decisively will not only thrive during the festive rush but set the stage for sustained success in 2026.
Sources
About the Author
Jason Doucet - Principal Advisor & Founder, Doucet Global Strategies
Jason Doucet, CPA, is the founder of Doucet Global Strategies, a consultancy specializing in strategic advisory for globally operating organizations. With deep expertise in international business, cross-border taxation, and governance, Jason supports multinational enterprises, NGOs, and institutional investors with high-level, tailored solutions.
